Triple dip missed!
Posted on 27 Jan 2021
So the latest figures hint that we"ve missed tripple dip by a whisker, reports Chartered Accountants Northampton Harris & Co.
We get a daily diet of doom and gloom about economic growth, especially from the Labour party, the Trades Unions and especially the BBC. Of course philiosophically they all have an implacable opposition to a smaller State, ignoring the realities of our economic plight.
However, out in the real world, in our clients" figures, we see little evidence of a double dip recession and certainly not a triple dip. So how do our clients" results fit with the overall poor economic growth numbers? Well the answer may be quite simple.
The service sector accounts for 77% of the economy. If you exclude financial services, then 66% of the economy has recovered and has grown by 6% since 2009 and is now well above 2009 levels. However, financial services has had a torrid time - it is 9% down on 2009 levels - and its poor performance has the effect of dragging down the overall figures for the economy.
The other problem for the overall economy (and the SNP in their independence bid for Scotland) is the North Sea oil and gas industry - it is down 32% since 2009. This is mainly due to a penal taxation regime that has made many fields uneconomic.
Construction is marginally up on 2009, but its slow growth is holding back the overall growth numbers.
So, the slow growth numbers for the economy are really down to financial services, North Sea oil and construction.
We haven"t got many clients in the first two sectors which is why we don"t see double dip or triple dip in their figures!
