Long lockdown will shrink economy by a fifthAnalysis by consultancy firm Capital Economics suggests Britain’s economy will shrink by a fifth during 2020 if a full lockdown has to remain in place for a year. It calculates that each additional month of full quarantining would knock 1.5 percentage points off annual growth. Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said keeping restrictions in place until April 2021 would see the economy contract by 19.6%. The report also forecasts that maintaining a full lockdown until the end of June will shrink the economy by 12% over 2020. Capital Economics notes that even with an immediate end to the restrictions, the economy would still shrink by 8.2% during 2020.